滑坡堰塞湖危险性预测与铁路减灾策略

摘要

considered in the railway alignment design stage.In this paper,a set of procedures for assessing the risks of landslide blocking are established,and the theoretical formula of each step is proposed.On this basis,a three-dimensional landslide model is established by ANSYS finite element software and FLAC3D finite difference software with reference to Desha landslide on Sichuan-Tibet Railway.The purpose is to analyze the stability of the landslide.And then the empirical formula is used to predict the risks of river blocking in case of large earthquakes.Finally,the influence range of the dammed lake and countermeasures for disaster reduction in line engineering are put forward.This paper not only provides reference for the design of line and the layout of major projects,but also promotes hopefully the development of the technologies to reduce disasters to mountain railway through case study.%我国铁路已开始向滑坡堵江高危险区延伸,滑坡堰塞湖灾害链成为在选线设计阶段就应该防控的风险源.提出一套堵江危险性评估作业程式,以及各环节建议采用的理论公式.在此基础上以拟建的川藏铁路德沙滑坡为例,首先利用ANSYS有限元软件、FLAC3D三维有限差分软件建立三维滑坡模型,分析滑坡稳定性;然后利用经验公式计算大震情况下可能堵江的预测结论;最后预估堰塞湖影响范围,据此提出线路工程减灾对策.不仅可为研究区线位设计和重大工程布设提供参考,并希望通过范例性研究,推动山区铁路灾害链减灾技术的发展.