为明确俄罗斯东部滨海边疆与阿穆尔地区口蹄疫发生风险和防控状况，基于世界动物卫生组织（OIE）世界动物卫生信息系统（WAHIS）检索的2012年—2014年度的口蹄疫疫情信息和该区域的口蹄疫易感畜群分布，借鉴统计分布模拟的方法，开展对俄罗斯东部滨海边疆和阿穆尔地区的口蹄疫发生风险和基于风险的抽样监测模拟。结果显示，阿穆尔地区牛、羊畜群的口蹄疫流行率模拟的结果在90％的置信区间分布在0．0032～0．0038之间，抽样监测模拟显示随机在阿穆尔地区需要随机抽取842头份的牛、羊动物样品，就可以在95％的概率范围内得到1头阳性动物；滨海边疆区口蹄疫流行率模拟的结果在90％的置信区间分布在0．804～0．0828之间，抽样监测模拟显示，如果随机在滨海边疆区至少需要随机抽取35头猪或牛或羊的动物，就能在95％的概率范围内抽取得到1头阳性动物。%In order to better understand the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)risk and its control measures in eastern Russian Amur Territory & Primorye Territory,animal health and FMD cases reported from OIE World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS)between 2012-2014 were retrieved,and the risk of the FMD in eastern part of Russian(Amur Territory & Primorye Territory)and its risk based on surveillance sampling scenery were explored.The results showed that the prevalences of FMD within the bovine & ca-parine susceptible population in Amur Territory were distributed within 0.003 2-0.003 8 (90% CI).Sam-pling surveillance modeling showed that there could be 95% confidence for getting one positive animal if randomly choosing 842 samples in Amur Territory.Similarly,the prevalences of FMD within the bovine &caparine susceptible population in Primorye Territory were distributed within 0.804-0.082 8 (90% CI). Sampling surveillance modeling showed that there could be 95% confidence for getting one positive animal if randomly choosing 35 samples in Primorye Territory.
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