天水市猪传染病调查样本量的确定

摘要

The occurrence of infectious diseases has brought serious losses to the pig industry development, resulting in a great harm.To ascertain the occurrence and prevalence of the class 2 or 3 swine infectious diseases in Tianshui and provide a strong and effective basis for the scientific prevention and control of swine diseases in the future,ELISA,agglutination test,immune colloidal gold technique and bacterial stai-ning detection methods were used for the investigation of swine infectious diseases nearly two years,and the prevalent status of main swine infectious diseases was basically determined in recent years.On this ba-sis,a simple method for determination of the minimum sample size of the survey was established by biomet-rics combined with Excell.The results showed that the survey accuracy reached 95%,and the minimum sample size for discovering a positive infectious pig was determined.Then the minimum sample size re-quired for the survey of infectious diseases in Tianshui pigs was calculated by this method.%猪传染病的发生给养猪业的发展带来了严重的损失，造成了很大危害。为实时掌握天水市二三类猪传染病的发生和流行情况，为今后有效防控猪传染病提供科学依据，近两年天水市采用 ELISA、平板凝集、免疫胶体金技术和细菌染色等检测方法进行了猪传染病调查，基本确定了近两年主要猪传染病的发生情况。在此基础上，论文运用生物统计学方法结合 Excell 建立了一种计算最小调查样本量的简便方法，确定了调查精度达到95％，至少发现1个阳性猪传染病例所需要的最小样本量，然后运用该计算方法计算出了天水市猪传染病调查所需要的最小样本量。