需求响应对电力需求影响的概率模型

摘要

The forecasting and analysis of electricity demand is the basis of power planning,and with the popularization of smart meters and the implementation of demand side management,demand response is playing an increasingly important role in electricity demand.To solve the problem that the conventional assessments on demand response are usually deterministic,the uncertainties of demand response are considered in this paper,and a probability model is proposed for analyzing the influence of demand response on electricity demand.Through the probabilistic analysis of demand response in selected regions,it can be seen that the results can support scalability planning based on the proposed probabilistic method.%电力需求预测与分析是电力规划的基础.随着智能电表的推广和需求侧管理的实施,需求响应对于电力需求产生越来越重要的影响.常规的需求响应对电力需求影响的评估结果通常是确定性的.本文考虑需求响应的不确定性因素,提出了需求响应对电力需求影响的概率模型.通过对选定区域的需求响应进行概率分析研究,可以支撑基于概率方法的扩展性规划.