基于改进可拓层次分析的停电影响综合评估

摘要

针对电力系统的停电影响综合评估问题, 提出了一种新的改进可拓层次分析法 (Improved Extension Analytic Hierarchy Process, IEAHP).首先, 建立停电影响的指标体系以全面表征各次停电的影响程度.其次, 根据历史停电数据与评估专家的经验, 划分出停电严重程度等级, 并运用可拓集理论计算停电事件的指标与等级隶属度.接着, 利用可拓区间的形式构建判断矩阵以解决专家的主观赋权模糊性问题, 并通过客观的专家权重分配方式对各个判断矩阵进行合并计算, 从而实现停电影响的综合评估.最后, 将所提方法用于实际停电事件评估, 所得结果证明了其有效性.%Aiming at the comprehensive evaluation of the impact of power failure on power systems, a new Improved Extension Analytic Hierarchy Process (IEAHP)is presented in this paper. Firstly, the indicator system is established to fully characterize the impact of each power failure. Secondly, the power failure levels are divided based on historical data of power failures and experience of evaluation experts, and then the extension set theory is used to calculate the membership of the indicators to the levels. Thirdly, the judgment matrix is constructed by the extension interval in order to reduce the experts' subjective empowerment vagueness, then the judgment matrices are combined through the objective allocation of expert weights so as to provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of power falure. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the assessment of real power failures, and the results prove its effectiveness.