基于风险理论的电力系统元件风险评估

摘要

This paper puts forward the risk assessment of power system components method based on the risk theory. Based on the theory of risk, the impact of component outage probability and component outage on the system is considered comprehensively. Five categories of risk indicators, including risk of over-voltage, low-voltage risk, risk of circuit overload, transformer overload risk, and loss of load risk are used to diagnose the risk of power system components, the 3 scale analytic hierarchy process is applied to derive components integrated risk, and then the ALARP principle is used to quantify and classify the consolidated risk. IEEE RTS - 79 system verifies that risk assessment method of power system components based on risk theory is feasible. It can determine the risk level and importance degree in the system of each system component, providing a certain reference for power system operation maintenance personnel.%提出了基于风险理论的电力系统元件风险评估办法。以风险理论为基础，综合考虑元件停运概率和元件停运可能对系统造成的影响，通过过电压风险、低电压风险、线路过载风险、变压器过载风险、失负荷风险五类风险指标对电力系统元件风险进行“分诊”，应用3标度层次分析法得出元件综合风险，并进一步应用ALARP原则对综合风险量化分级。通过IEEE RTS-79系统验证了基于风险理论的电力系统元件风险评估办法是可行的，它能确定系统各元件所处的风险水平及在系统中的重要度，为电力系统运行维护人员提供了一定的参考依据。