基于云测度的电力营销状态评估及预警模型研究

摘要

With the acceleration of electricity marketization and smart grid process, power enterprises have to change their traditional marketing model. The types and structures of power marketing information become more and more complicate under new situation. How to implement low-loss conversion of complicate information to minimize the information losses during the cognitive process and make the result of assessing and forewarning the power marketing condition more objective and precise is very important for power enterprises to improve their management and decision making level. In this paper, we present a model of assessing and forewarning power marketing condition based on cloud measure theory. Through establishing cloud models of power marketing condition and assessment indexes, we accomplish fuzzy boundary of assessment interval and low-loss transformation between qualitative and quantitative indexes. At last, through cloud measure analyzing based on cloud gravity center, we can draw an objective conclusion of power marketing condition. The model based on cloud measure theory provides a new method for power marketing management. The result of example verifies the feasibility and practicability of new model.%　　电力市场化改革及智能电网建设进程的加快，促使电力企业必须改变传统的营销模式。新形势下的电力营销信息呈现出类型、结构日益复杂的特点。如何实现复杂信息之间的低损耗转换，降低信息认知过程中的损耗，使得电力营销状态的评估预警更加客观、准确，对提高电力企业管理决策水平具有十分重要意义。提出了基于云测度的电力营销状态评估预警模型，通过建立电力营销状态及评估因子云，实现评估等级区间界限的软化及评估因子定性、定量表示的低损耗转换。最终通过基于云重心的云测度分析，得出电力营销状态评估预警结论的客观表述，为电力营销管理决策提供了一种新思路。通过算例分析，验证了该模型的可行性、实用性。