风光水火联合运行电网的电源出力特性及相关性研究

摘要

Through the investigation of the actual operating data of northwest power system, this paper comes up with the depth of peak load regulation of combined operation of conventional thermal power generating units and heat supply units, and the principal factors that affect the regulation capability of hydropower. Based on mathematical statistics analysis, this paper also proposes the seasonal characteristic, daily characteristic and probability distribution of wind power and photovoltaic output that help simulate the operation of wind-solar-hydro-thermal joint operation power grids in different spatial and temporal scales and determine the reasonable configuration of all kinds of power supply and economic operation scheme. The analysis shows that the relevance between the output of photovoltaic power and the time is strong while the relevance between the output of wind power and the time is weak. And the complementarity between hydropower and photovoltaic power is obvious while the complementarity between wind power and photovoltaic power isn’t. For wind-solar-hydro-thermal joint operation power grids, it’s inappropriate to use simple peak load balance under light load flow mode to estimate its acceptance ability of new energy. We should determine the reasonable installed capacity and structure of all kinds of power supply through the operation simulation of the power system.%通过调研西北电网大量实际运行数据，提出常规火电与热电联产机组的调峰深度以及影响水电调节能力的主要因素。基于数理统计分析方法提出风电、光伏集群出力的季特性、日特性以及概率分布曲线，为风光水火联合运行电网不同时空尺度下生产运行模拟提供依据，从而确定各类电源的合理配置和经济运行方案。分析证明：光伏出力与时间相关性强，风电出力与时间相关性弱。风电与光伏互补性不明显，水电与光伏互补性明显。风光水火联合运行电网的新能源接纳能力不宜采用小方式下调峰平衡的简单估算方法，应通过电力系统生产运行模拟仿真确定各类电源的合理装机规模和结构。