考虑天气因素的输电网可靠性区间评估及其仿射算法

摘要

为了考虑故障率和天气因素的不确定性对电网可靠性评估的影响，在输电线路分段模型的基础上，引入区间概率用于可靠性参数不确定的元件停运率建模。采用状态枚举法和区间运算对 IEEE-RBTS 系统进行可靠性评估。针对区间运算结果过于保守的问题，引入仿射算法，有效缩减了计算结果的区间范围。计算结果表明，天气因素对输电网可靠性评估的影响不容忽视，区间数形式的可靠性指标可以反映不确定部分的大小，证明了该方法的合理性和有效性。%By taking into consideration the effect of uncertainty of failure rate and weather condition on reliability evaluation of power system, based on the piece-wise model of transmission line, this paper presents a new reliability assessment model based on the interval probability theory to solve the uncertainty problem. The method uses interval arithmetic and state enumeration method to calculate interval-valued reliability indices of IEEE-RBTS. Furthermore, a large overestimate of boundaries in the interval arithmetic can be improved by affine arithmetic. The result shows that the weather condition will affect the reliability evaluation of the transmission system greatly, and the reliability indices in form of interval number also give the size of the uncertain part, which proves the efficiency and validity of the proposed.