基于风险传递网络的智能变电站二次系统风险评估

摘要

风险评估是运行管理中一项重要的工作.作为保障变电站安全运行的二次系统,很有必要进行风险评估.从之前的研究中可以看出,变电站二次系统风险评估难点在于二次设备数量多,关系复杂,难以统筹考虑,二次设备对一次设备的影响作为主要风险难以量化.为此,提出了风险传递和网络理论相结合的方法.风险评估分为两个部分,一为自身风险评估采用网络理论求解,另一部分为对一次系统的影响,采用风险传递的方式求取.针对不同工作部门的需要,提出了一套风险指标体系.最后采用一个实际运行的智能变电站二次系统验证该方法的正确性.%Risk assessment is an important task of operational management.It is necessary to carry out risk assessment in order to ensure the safe operation of substation secondary system. According to the past researches, the difficulties of its risk assessment include two parts, one is secondary devices are of high quantity and complex relationship, and difficult to consider comprehensively, anotherit is difficult to quantize the impact of secondary devices on primary devices as the main risk. To this end, acombination model of risk transferandnetworktheory is introduced. The risk assessment is decomposed into two parts: one is its own riskassessment which is solved using network theory, another is impact on primary system which is solved using risk transfer model. Then, a set of risk index system is presented according to the needs of different departments. Finally, a real smart substation secondary system is taken as an example to verify the correctness of this method.