Based on the typhoon forecasting and the strength random variables of distribution component pole, this paper proposes a wind speed based failure rate calculation model for distribution component pole. This model can calculate the failure rate of distribution network components under different wind speeds. The reliability level of the highest wind speed section during typhoon landing of distribution system is calculated by the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method combining existing feeder and load partition theory. In the simulation process, the real time failure rate of the components and the dynamic alternation characteristics of operation-fault-operation are considered. The calculation results provide theoretical basis for reinforcing the distribution network project and some guidance for the differential design and plan of power distribution network in the future. Finally, the IEEE RBTS BUS6 F4 feeder is taken as an example to be calculated using Matlab, and the results show the correctness and effectiveness of the method.%基于台风的可预测性,考虑到配电网元件电杆的强度随机变量,提出基于风速的配电网元件电杆故障率计算模型.通过该模型可计算出不同风速下配电网元件的故障率,并结合现有的馈线、负荷分块的思想,采用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法计算出配电系统在台风登陆过程中最高风速段的可靠性水平.模拟过程中考虑了元件的实时故障率以及运行—故障—运行—故障的动态交替特性.该计算结果为以后的配电网工程加固提供了理论基础,对于配电网的差异化规划设计也具有一定的指导意义.最后以IEEE RBTS BUS6 F4馈线为算例,在Matlab上进行了计算,计算结果验证了该方法的正确性与有效性.
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