采用时间序列预测风电场出力

摘要

基于时间序列的方法,采用自回归滑动平均(ARMA)模型进行短期风速预测；考虑风力发电机组排列布置时尾流效应的影响、风电场址地面粗糙程度、空气密度、风向变化以及不同型号风机功率特性的差异等因素,采用Jasen尾流模型建立了大型风电场的综合模型.结果表明,合理的风电场布置方案有利于减小尾流效应的影响,从而提高风电场出力.%Based on the time series method, the model ARMA is used to forecast the wind speed in a short term. Considering impacts of wake effects, roughness of the land, air density, wind direction changes and differences of wind turbines in output, the Jensen model is adopted to build the synthetic model of a large wind farm. Results indicate that a better layout of a wind farm helps to reduce the wake effect and improve the output power.