风电功率预测技术综述与改进建议

摘要

With large scale wind power integrated into power system,in order to ensure the safe operation of power grid,it is necessary to predict the wind power generation.This paper introduces the prediction methods of wind power generation generally according to different classification criterion,then analyzes the wind power generation technologies based on historical and numerical weather respectively,and summarizes the main mod-els of wind power generation and its advantages and disadvantages,analyzes the predition evaluation index. Draws the conclusion that choosing the reasonable prediction model and optimizes its performance is the key to the wind power generation .After reviewing the status of the predition technologies at home and abroad,some existing problems in the current is pointed out,finally some advice about wind power generation research and development is proposed.%随着大规模风电接入电力系统，为了保证电网安全、稳定运行，需要对风电功率进行预测。阐述了不同分类标准下的风电功率预测方法，分析了基于历史数据和基于数值天气预报的功率预测方法，归纳了风电功率预测的主要模型及其优缺点，研究了预测误差的评价指标。认为合理选择预测模型和进行模型性能优化是风电功率预测的关键。在综述国内外风电功率预测技术的研究现状后，针对国内当前对风电场功率预测模型研究与开发工作，提出了改进建议。