兼顾主导行业与上下级协调的电量预测方法

摘要

For the reason that existing forecasting methods can’t make full use of all components of power supply data and have not considered the coordination between the forecasting re⁃sults, this paper proposes an power supply forecasting method based on dominant trades considering the coordination between up⁃per⁃level and lower⁃level load. Firstly, it designs a principle and method to choose the dominant trades, and uses the influence de⁃gree index to assess the influence of trades. Then, it uses GM(1, N) model to forecast the monthly and annual power supply of the pre⁃dict district. Finally, a one⁃dimension and two⁃level coordinated model is designed to coordinate the monthly and annual power sup⁃ply. The actual power supply data is used to test this forecasting method, and the results show that the forecasting method has the characteristics of accuracy and high reliability.%针对现有的电量预测方法对电量自身组成结构信息利用不足、忽略不同级电量预测结果存在不协调的问题，提出了一种兼顾主导行业与上下级协调的电量预测方法。设计了主导行业筛选原则与方法，引入影响度评价行业对地区电量预测的影响程度，采用最优GM（1，N）模型对待预测区域的月度电量和年度电量进行预测，建立一维二级协调模型，协调待预测区域的月度电量和年度电量，以消除不同级电量预测结果间的不平衡性。应用该方法对某供电局的电量数据进行预测分析，验证提出的算法的准确性和有效性。