城市化进程中移民贫困问题与财政压力估算

摘要

Based on the data in public assistance from central and local government departments,this paper tries to estimate the fiscal impact of migrant poverty.The key finding of this paper is that the extra spending is still too big to be covered by the system of fiscal transfer payment and will threaten the nation＇s financial well-being.This situation will get worse when welfare migration occurs.%本文依据中央和地方政府部门的统计数据和人口迁移的福利磁力理论,对广东省范围内所可能产生的移民贫困和财政压力问题进行了估算。估算结果表明：部分地区由于区域隔离机制放开、贫困移民增多所加重的财政压力,尽管可以通过中央财政的转移支付予以解决,但这项政策安排的巨大财政成本,使它在现阶段并不具备足够的可行性。