21世纪海上丝绸之路：安全风险及其应对

摘要

建设“21世纪海上丝绸之路”（以下简称“海丝路”）的倡议自2013年10月正式提出以来，一直是一个热点研究议题。在完整把握“海丝路”丰富内涵的基础上，本文考察了其建设过程中可能面临的安全风险，并提出了应对策略。通过运用文献研究法、案例研究法、数据分析法等多种研究方法对上述问题进行详细梳理、分析和论证，本文认为建设“海丝路”过程中可能面临的安全风险有：可能引发美国“亚太再平衡”的进一步举措；可能导致印度的担忧和反制；沿线热点安全问题形成的干扰；沿线的非传统安全威胁。创造性应对上述安全风险的可能措施有：将美国及其盟友纳入“海丝路”建设并做好反制准备；理性处理与印度之间的矛盾分歧；创造性解决周边热点安全问题；合作应对沿线非传统安全问题。%Since being officially put forward on October 2013 , the propose that constructing the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road ( the Road) has all through being a hot research issue .Based on completely grasping the rich connotation of the Road , this paper studies the probable security risks when constructing the Road and proposes the countermeasures .After carding , analyzing and demonstrating in detail by using literature study method and case study method , data analysis method , this paper gets the conclusions as follows:The security risks in the process of constructing the Road are:the further actions of the US “Asia-Pacific Re-balance” ;India’s worry and counter;interference of hot-spot security issues along the line;non-traditional security threats along the line .The probable measures of creatively coping the security risks above are :bring the US and its allies to the construction of the Road and make full preparations to counter it ;rationally managing the contradictions and divergences with India;creatively solving the peripheral hot-spot security issues;cooperating to cope the non-traditional security threats along the line .