巡航导弹突破要地防空群多层防线的概率模型

摘要

In order to solve the problem of how to calculate the penetration probability of cruise missile, the penetration probability model of cruise missile is established. The penetration process of cruise missile is considered as Markov chain whose time space and state space are both dispersed in a certain period of time. Then it is used one-step transfer probability Matrix to calculate the remaining probability of cruise missiles when they breaking through each defense. And finally the model is validated through an actual example. The results show that the model can reduce penetration probability of the cruise missile and improve interception probability of the air defense group for strategic points. It is significant for improving the security of strategic points.%为解决如何计算巡航导弹的突防概率问题,建立了巡航导弹的突防概率模型.将巡航导弹的突防过程看作是在一定时间内时间空间和状态空间都离散的马尔可夫链,运用一步转移概率矩阵,计算出巡航导弹突破每一层防线后剩余情况的概率,并结合实际算例进行分析.结果表明:该模型可降低巡航导弹的突防概率,提高要地防空群的拦截概率,对提高要地安全性具有重要意义.