In order to avoid the blindness of battlefield command for military officials, it was necessary to pre-estimate the average ammunition consumption according to operational mission. Aiming at the characteristic of ship-borne shrapnel, simplified approach to firing error was analyzed. Based on basic principle of uniform distribution method, the evaluation formula of damage probability was put forward. By inverse operation of damage probability, the computational model on average ammunition was put forward. The results show that the computational model holds the advantages of simple formula and fast calculation, and it provides scientific evidence to establish decision-making during firing on shore.%为避免射击指挥员战场指挥的盲目性,根据作战任务对舰载火箭子母弹平均弹药消耗量进行预先估计.针对舰载火箭子母弹射击特点,分析射击误差的简化处理,基于均匀分布法的基本原理给出毁伤概率评估公式,通过毁伤概率的逆运算建立舰载火箭子母弹平均弹药消耗量的计算模型.结果表明:该计算模型公式简单、计算速度快,能为舰载火箭子母弹的对岸作战使用提供决策依据.
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