针对我军装备备件保障中存在的需求预测手段落后的问题，对美军装备备件需求预测的研究和应用情况进行研究。分析了美军陆、海、空三军备件初始供应标准的确定方法，讨论了进行需求预测采用的常用方法，从目标和做法2个方面介绍了美军的改进计划。根据我军实际，从装备研制和使用2个阶段，提出了加强我军备件需求预测研究的策略。该研究将有助于推动我军装备备件保障的精确化水平。%In review of the backward technology of demand forecasting in the equipment spare parts support in PLA, the researches and applications of demand forecasting methods used in US army were researched. The decision methods of initial spare parts supply standard used by US army, navy and air force were analyzed, the common used methods of demand forecasting were discussed, and the improving plans of US army were introduced from two aspects:objectives and practices. According to our practice, the strategies in both equipment development and usage phases to enhance the research of spare parts forecasting demand were proposed. The research will be helpful to promote the precision level of equipment support in our army.
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