基于两步方差分析的弹道精度影响因素分析方法

摘要

For improving the efficiency of trajectory accuracy’s influencing factors analysis, the method of two-steps variance analysis was presented. Based on the judging criterion of trajectory accuracy, firstly, the important influencing factors of trajectory accuracy were found by the method of one-way ANOVA. Then, considering the interaction between each factor, the variance analysis method based on orthogonal test was used to confirm the main error parameter of trajectory accuracy. The result shows that the method could select the significant influencing factors of trajectory accuracy efficiently under the assumption of ensuring the result’s dependability. According to the significant influencing factors, the optimal level collocation of factors could be confirmed in order to plan the test more efficiently. The method could also decrease the frequency of simulation test and have some guiding significance for the parameter optimization.%为提高弹道精度影响因素的分析效率，提出一种两步方差分析方法。基于弹道精度指标判定标准，首先采用单因素方差分析方法，找出对弹道精度有重要影响的参数，再考虑因素间的相互作用，采用基于正交试验的方差分析方法，最终确定出影响弹道精度的最主要参数。结果表明：在保证试验结果可靠性的前提下，该方法可高效地筛选出对试验结果有显著影响的误差参数，依据显著性因子的水平和效应确定最佳水平搭配，可有针对性地进行试验筹划，大大提高了仿真试验的效率，降低了仿真验证的工作量，同时也对试验参数的优化具有一定指导意义。