基础项目政府担保因素组成及其对投资激励作用

摘要

This article reviews the research of government-guaranteed infrastructure project, and puts forward government-guaranteed factors from four parts.On the basis of this, we propose the research hypothesis; infrastructure project attributes as internal cause and government-guarantee as external cause which influence the invest ment activity.Through questionnaire survey and SEM analysis, the result shows that the project properties has significantly negative effect on the government-guarantee; the project properties and government-guarantee have significantly positive effects on return on the investment activity, besides, the government-guarantee has partial mediate effect on the investment activity.If the project properties have lower scores, the government guarantees will be larger, on the contrary, the government guarantees will be smaller, that is, the level of government guarantees not only depends on the project properties, but also it has a significant impact on investment activity.%充分发挥政府担保的支持和引导作用,吸引非政府投资人投资是解决基础项目资金"瓶颈"的有效途径,研究其如何影响投资人积极性问题具有重要的理论和现实意义.通过回顾和总结国内外相关研究成果,提出作为外因的政府担保四个方面要素、作为内因的项目属性来影响项目投资积极性的概念模型及研究假设,采用调查问卷和结构方程模型方法得到结果:项目属性对政府担保具有显著负作用,表明项目预期盈利较好时,政府提供的担保水平较低,项目预期盈利较差时,政府提供的担保水平较高;在对投资积极性的影响方面,项目属 性和政府担保都对项目投资积极性具有显著的正激励作用;值得注意的是,政府担保对项目投资积极性还具有显著的中介效应.结论表明,在项目属性判断基础上,政府权衡投资积极性和财政风险,对于项目属性得分较低的项目政府提供的担保程度会比较大,对项目属性得分较高的项目政府提供的担保程度会比较小,即政府担保水平依赖于项目属性,又显著影响投资人积极性.