打击时敏目标对火力反应时间需求的探索性分析

摘要

Based on the trend of “hit is damage of modern artillery ’ s fire assault”, the requirement of fire reac-tion time on hitting time-sensitive targets is demonstrated in a way of exploratory analysis from the first group shell ’ s hit probability .The main conclusions are:with the changes of its own first group shell ’ s hit probability and the counter ’ s early-warning probability , the characteristics of fire reaction time are put forward such as ad-justment limited , gradual stability and decreasing marginal utility;whew the scopes of the requirement of fire re-action time are distinguished by the stay state or maneuver state of time-sensitive targets at initial operation time , they are from 30 seconds to 90 seconds, or from 15 seconds to 60 seconds.%依据现代炮兵火力突击中“命中即毁伤”的趋势，从首群（发）命中概率出发，以探索性分析方法为工具，论证打击时敏目标对火力反应时间的需求。主要结论是：随着己方首群（发）命中概率和对方预警概率的变化，火力反应时间具有“有限可调”、“逐渐稳定”和“边际效用递减”之特点；在战斗初始时刻时敏目标处于驻止或机动状态时，火力反应时间的需求范围分别是30s～90s和15s～60s。