订单融资业务风险等级评价研究

摘要

订单融资是一种新兴融资方式,评定其风险等级具有重要意义.该文以"订单"为引线,分析不同阶段风险,构建了两阶段风险等级评价模型.风险评价分为两个阶段:第一阶段通过两个一级指标判断业务订单真实性.第二阶段构建了包括主体信用、质押率、订单履行能力、库存等的指标体系,并详细阐述了各种不同指标的测定方法,运用指数函数、余弦函数、幂函数等处理方法,将各类定量指标统一投影到0-10分;然后分别运用ANP法和AHP法确定各类指标权重,构建风险等级评价模型,将风险分为5个等级.该模型可以为金融机构贷款决策提供帮助,且该文提出的分段函数等定量指标归一化方法、结合实例介绍ANP法计算原理,对于其他学者均有参考价值.%Purchase order financing, a new financing mode, is very important for grading its risk and deciding whether credit is given or not.The paper explains the concept of purchase order financing and its process first.And then it takes "order" as the lead, analyses its risk source from the different stages.Finally, it constructs a risk grade evaluation model.Risk evaluation process is divided into two stages: the first stage is to judge the authenticity of business order by two indexes.The second stage constructs an indicator system, which consists of the subject credit, mortgage rate, order fulfillment ability, inventory as four first grade indicators and a plurality of second grade indicators, and elaborates the determination methods of the various targets, according to the different indexes using piecewise function, exponential function, cosine function, power function processing method to make its scores unification into 0-10.We respectively use ANP method and AHP method to determine the weight of each index, and construct a complete risk grade evaluation model, which divides the purchase order financing business into 5 grades.The risk evaluation model can help decision-making of loan of financial institutions, and its application which leads to normalized index such as the proposed exponential function, cosine function and power function for quantitative indexes has reference significance.Finally the paper introduces the calculation principle of ANP method, which also has certain reference value for other scholars.