市场接纳不确定下短周期新产品产能投资研究——考虑竞争的投资时机与规模决策

摘要

Market acceptance of new products has a high degree of uncertainty, and traditional investment theo-ries can not apply to investments of new products.For capacity investments of new products, we study how to make capacity investment opportunity and scale decisions of new products with short cycles for a monopoly enter-prise and two competitive enterprises with different costs.There are two investment opportunities as"earlier"and"later"for enterprises to choose,and"earlier"investment is defined when enterprises know the mean and covar-iance of market size for the new product; and"later"investment when enterprises know real market size.A monopoly enterprise can't collect sale information before entering the market,and it will choose"earlier"invest-ment or no investment,therefore we give the condition of choosing"earlier"investment and corresponding opti-mal expected profit.There are four kinds of circumstances for two competitive enterprises with different costs, and we give optimal capacity investment scale decisions and corresponding optimal expected profits respectively. The optimal investment opportunity decision is given by comparing optimal expected profits for these four circum-stances.%新产品的市场接纳具有很大不确定性,传统投资理论并不适用于新产品投资.针对新产品投资中的产能投资,研究了垄断企业和有成本差异的竞争企业制定短周期新产品的产能投资时机与规模策略.给定企业"早"和"晚"两个投资时机可供选择,定义"早"投资时,企业只知道新产品市场规模的期望和方差;"晚"投资时,企业知道新产品真实的市场规模.垄断企业进入市场之前无法进行销售信息的收集,只会选择"早"投资或者不投资,给出其选择"早"投资的条件、最优产能投资规模及最大期望利润.有成本差异企业竞争的情形可以分为四种,分别给出四种情形下的最优产能投资规模及最大期望利润,并通过比较各情形下两企业的最大期望利润给出最优的产能投资时机策略.