山东气候年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系

摘要

Based on sea surface temperature in tropical Pacific and meteorological data of China since 1951,the interannual climate characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in Shandong Province and their interannual relationship with ENSO were analyzed statistically.Results show that the air temperature featured a meridional distribution in spring and summer but latitudinal distribution in autumn and winter.The distribution of precipitation decreased in scale south to north in the province.The interannual variability in air temperature (up to 1 ℃ in the northwestern Shandong) in winter was much more significant than other seasons were,especially in autumn.In seasonal accumulative precipitation,the most significant interannual variability appeared in summer in the northwestern and southeastern Shandong,and the western Jiaozhou Bay where the maximum precipitation anomalies occurred (up to 120mm),while the interannual variability was weak in winter.The impacts of ENSO on the air temperature and precipitation anomalies were not strictly anti-symmetric in intensity with significant inhomogeneous distribution.The La Ni(n)ia affected more on the interannual variability of air temperature,while E1 Ni(n)o did more on that of precipitation.The influence of the E1 Ni(n)o/La Ni(n)a on the interannual variability of air temperature was anti-symmetric in the southern coastal but inland regions of Shandong in ENSO years in developing winter and decaying summer;and the influence on precipitation was asymmetric during developing summer and autumn but anti-symmetric during decaying summer in both southern coastal and inland regions.%利用1951年以来65年的热带太平洋海表面温度数据和中国气温以及降水的站点观测资料,通过标准化处理和合成分析的方法,分析了山东气温和降水的季节气候特征及其年际变化,揭示了ENSO冷暖位相发展年及衰减年与山东气温和降水年际气候异常的关系.结果表明:在气温方面,山东地区春夏和秋冬季节温度分别呈经向和纬向分布,降水一年四季都表现为南多北少的特征;冬季鲁西北的气温年际变化在1℃以上,最为显著,而秋季气温的年际变化最不明显.对于降水的年际变化,夏季鲁西北、鲁南东部和胶州湾西部地区的年际变化最大,季节累计降水量异常最大达120mm以上,冬季降水年际变化最弱.ENSO对山东地区不同季节气温和降水异常强度的影响并非严格反对称,且存在显著的空间分布不均匀性;拉尼娜对山东气温年际变化的影响要比厄尔尼诺强、且影响范围广,厄尔尼诺对山东降水年际变化的影响更明显;厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜发展年和衰减年夏季对山东南部沿海地区(以青岛为例)气温正负变化的影响是反对称的,但是对内陆地区(以济南为例)而言,在厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜发展年冬季以及衰减年夏季两者对济南气温的影响是一致的;ENSO发展年夏季和秋季,厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜对南部沿海地区和内陆降水的影响不对称,但是对衰减年夏季降水的影响是反对称的.