基于多源卫星遥感的珠江口围填海生命周期分析

摘要

围填海是区域社会经济发展到一定阶段向海洋谋求发展空间的一种基本手段.珠江三角洲是我国社会经济发展的热点区域之一,探索其近岸河口区域围填海时空过程并对其未来趋势进行分析对海岸带综合开发具有重要的意义.本研究以多源陆地资源卫星Landsat为数据源,通过影像数据处理分析探讨了珠江口围填海历史变迁过程,并对其围填海生命周期进行了估计.结果表明,珠江口围填海主要发生在改革开放后,其中1978—1988年围填海面积为18572 hm2,1988—1996年间围填海面积为25528 hm2,1996—2005年间围填海面积为13911 hm2,2005—2015年间围填海面积6723 hm2.截至2015年,珠江口共围填海面积64753 hm2,空间上主要集中分布于西部岸段.基于历史围填海时空演变过程,通过围填海生命周期图进一步对珠江口未来的围填海工程实施潜力进行形式预判.结果显示,珠海岸段和深圳前海岸段是珠江口今后实施围填海热点区域,其他区域围填海速度会相对减缓,但随着珠江口海岛逐渐与陆地海岸带相接,该区域围填海过程也将会终止.围填海生命周期分析可为海岸带实施围填海工程规划提供相关决策依据.%Sea reclamation is regarded as an important means to seek reservation space from sea for development when regional socio-economy develops to a certain stage.The Pearl River Delta is one of hot spots for society and economy development in China.It has great importance for overall development in coastal zone to explore its spatio-temporal process and analyze the future trends of sea reclamation.This paper mainly discussed the spatio-temporal process and periodical characters of sea reclamation in the Pearl River Estuary with the multi-source Landsat imageries.The results indicated that the sea reclamation in Pearl River Estuary was mainly performed after the reform and opening up policy carried out in 1978.Four typical periods could be divided during the process of sea reclamation.Each period presented different total areas and growth rates,which was conclu-ded as follows:the areas of sea reclamation were about 18572 hectares,25528 hectares,13911 hectares,and 6723 hectares during the periods 1978—1988,1988—1996,1996—2005,and 2005—2015,respectively.By 2015,the total reclamation area in Pearl River Estuary was up to 64753 hectares.The hot spots of sea reclamation were especially concentrated along the west coastline. The potential regions of Pearl River Estuary for sea reclamation project in the future were further anticipated with the analysis of life cycle diagram.Results indicated that the coastal zone in Zhuhai and the former parts of coastal zone in Shenzhen would be the focus areas in implementing sea reclamation.In comparison,other areas will have relatively lower probability of sea reclamation. Furthermore,islands located in the Pearl River Estuary will be inclined to be connected with ter-restrial lands because of the continual reclamation,the sea reclamation process will be terminated at last.Life cycle analysis can provide scientific reference for making planning of sea reclamation in coastal zone.