舟曲"8.8"特大山洪泥石流灾难之后,研究其发展趋势是做好舟曲灾后重建和防灾减灾工作的基础.通过现场调查和搜集历史数据,分析了泥石流再次爆发的可能性和发展趋势.认为三眼峪沟爆发泥石流的地形地貌和降雨条件依然存在,"8.8"特大泥石流的下泄量体积仅180 ×104m3,仅为总物源的1/15,大量的松散物质仍然堆积在沟谷内,三眼峪仍然具有再次发生泥石流的可能性.三眼峪沟泥石流仍处于不断发展之中,频率和规模将呈现增大的趋势,灾后泥石流堆积扇上人员、住房和基础设施减少会使泥石流造成的灾害损失减小.%After the extra large scale debris flow hazards in Sanyanyu valley of Zhouqu county on August 8? 2010, Study on its future development trend is the basis of accomplishing post-disaster reconstruction in Zhouqu and disaster prevention and reduction. After field investigation and historical date collection, analyzed the possibility of recurrence about debris flow in Zhouqu and its future development trend. Studies suggested that it still has the possibility of debris flow in Sanyanyu valley. The topography and rainfall conditions for debris flow in Sanyanyu valley are still exist. A large amount of loose deposit still accumulated inside the valley. The discharge volume of the extra large scale debris flow on August 8,2010 are only 180X104m3, and it is 1/15 of total material source. The debris flow in Sanyanyu valley is still developing with greater frequency and scale. Losses caused by debris flow could be decreased by reduced the residents, housing and infrastructure on debris flow accumulation area.
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