本文从研究人口抚养比入手建立人口增长的差分方程组模型，据此推算人口总量和人口抚养比的变化趋势。结果表明：人口老龄化有一个极限，不会无限制地恶化下去。同时，我国生育率控制指标的最佳调节时机至少还要再等待20年，相当长的一段时期内仍须维持现行计划生育政策不变，稳定低生育率水平，积极应对人口老龄化。%From research on dependency ratio to start , this paper sets up a module of difference equations on population growth, and calculates the change trend of population and dependency ratio. The result shows:there is limit to population ag-ing while it will not get worse indefinitely. The opportunity of population policy adjustment in China would arise after at least 20 years, we should maintain the current family planning policy ,low fertility rate within a long duration and deal with popula-tion aging actively.
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