我国人口年龄结构与出口商品结构变动的灰色关联分析

摘要

在对人口年龄结构变动及劳动密集型产品出口比重变动进行分析的基础上，运用灰色关联分析实证研究了人口年龄结构与出口商品结构之间的关系，得出以下结论：第一，人口年龄结构与出口商品结构之间具有很高的相关关系，人口年龄结构变化势必影响我国未来出口商品结构。第二，我国未来的劳动年龄人口比重会处于下降的趋势，而老年人口比重将会上升。第三，我国劳动密集型产品的出口比重虽在不断下降，但仍处于较高水平，这势必影响我国在国际分工中的地位。第四，汇率与出口商品结构之间的相关度并不高，这需要引起政府在制定相关外汇政策时的注意。%Changes in the age structure of the population and changes in the proportion of exports of labor-intensive products were analyzed. Then the relationship between the population age structure and the structure of export commodities were ana-lyzed with the method of grey relational analysis,the following conclusions:First,There is a high relationship between the pop-ulation age structure and export commodity structure,the population changes in age structure will inevitably affect China’s fu-ture export commodity structure. Second,China’s future will be in the proportion of working-age population decline,while the proportion of elderly population will increase. Third, the proportion of exports of labor-intensive products ,although declining, but still at a high level,this is bound to affect our country’s position in the international division of labor. Fourth,exchange rates do not significantly affect commodity exports structure,to which government should pay attention in the formulation of rel-evant policies.