首页> 中文期刊>西北人口 >秦巴山区人口分布的影响因素分析及分区引导--以陕西省安康市为例

秦巴山区人口分布的影响因素分析及分区引导--以陕西省安康市为例

     

摘要

The paper takes town of Ankang as unit and uses spatial statistical tools to divide the reasonable population cluster level. Discussing the main factors of population distribution based on spatial correlation between population density and economic, social nature factors by GWR tools to guide population cluster reasonably. The result shows that: ①the level of population cluster should according to growth and size of population. ②Economic development effect on population cluster is less than social development and natural environment. Medical has positive effect which is increasing marginal on population cluster. Traffic has diminishing marginal utility. Elevation has negative effect which is diminishing marginal on population cluster. Cultivated land effects are based on industrial structure. ③Factors for population cluster are differ, that is economic development demand> land demand> conve-nient transportation demand>good medical conditions demand>lowland demand. ④Raising strategies for Qinba mountain to guide population cluster should be reasonable, that highly population clustered area should focus on traffic construction and efficient use of land, population clustered area should focus on traffic construction,moderately population clustered area should focus on medi-cal service facilities, and lowly population clustered area should focus on the transition of population in high mountains.%随着人口城镇化步伐的加快,秦巴山区人口空间结构将进一步重组。本文基于安康市的乡镇单元,采用空间分析合理划分人口集聚区的等级,结合地理加权回归模型分析人口密度与经济发展、社会发展、自然环境的空间相关性,试图揭示人口分布的主要影响因素,并针对不同人口集聚区进行策略引导。研究表明:①人口集聚区等级的划分可结合人口增速与人口总量;②不同影响因素对人口集聚产生的效应具有明显的差异性,如经济发展水平对人口集聚具有“马太效应”;医疗条件对人口集聚的影响存在正效应,也存在着边际效用递增的规律;交通条件对人口集聚的影响存在边际递减效应;高程对人口聚集的影响存在负效应,并存在着边际效用递减;而耕地对人口集聚的影响与产业结构相关;③影响人口聚集的需求要素具有显著的差异,即经济发展需求>土地需求>便捷的交通需求>良好的医疗条件需求>低海拔需求。④对于秦巴山区来说,人口集聚的引导策略应结合“地情”进行统筹谋划,如人口高度集聚区以道路交通建设和集约高效利用土地为重点,人口次高度集聚区以道路交通建设为重点,人口中度集聚区以医疗服务设施完善为重点,人口低度集聚区以高山人口转移为重点。

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