建立了包括水资源系统、社会系统、经济系统和生态环境系统4个方面20项指标的区域水资源承载力综合评价模型；引入熵权法和层次分析法计算各评价指标权重，提高了权重确定的科学性与客观性。以研究区内7个县市为研究对象，利用模型通过形成决策矩阵、确定权重、建立加权决策矩阵、计算各评价对象与理想解的相对贴进度，由此得到不同区域水资源承载力水平。结果表明：三江平原整体水资源承载力处于“中等”水平；7个县市中，七台河市与穆棱市水资源承载力为Ⅱ级，处于“较好”水平，鸡西市、鹤岗市、双鸭山市、佳木斯市与依兰县处于“中等”水平，以上结果符合三江平原的实际情况。随着区域社会经济的发展，应结合水资源承载力评价结果和区域特点，制定科学合理的水资源规划，以保证社会经济的发展与水资源的供给始终处于良性状态。%Models for the general assessment of the bearing capacity of the regional water resources in terms of water resources system, social system, economic system and ecological-environmental system with 20 indicators are built.The weight of each assessment indicator is calculated by application of the entropy method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.This improves the science and objectivity of the weight determination.Totally 7 cities and counties are taken as the study objects.Through the models and by establishment of decision-making matrix, weight determination, establishment of weight decision-making matrix, and calculation of the relative similarity degree between assessment objects and ideal solution, the bearing capacity of water resources in different region is derived accordingly.The study shows that the bearing capacity of the whole water resources of theHeilong River-Wusuli River-Songhua River plain is at the medium level.In the 7 cities and counties, the bear-ing capacity of the water resources of Qitaihe City and Muleng City is at Class II, belonging to the better level.That of Jixi City, Hegang City, Shuangyashan City, Jimusi City and Yilan Country is at the medium level.The study results are in compliance with the actual conditions ofthe Heilong River-Wusuli River-Songhua River plain. With development of the regional socialeconomy , the scientific and reasonable plan of water resources shall be made out in combination of the assessment results of the bearing capacity of water resourcesand the regional characteristics to secure the social-economic development and the water-resources supply to stay allthe time at good condition.
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