新疆黄水沟1956-2013年径流变化特征研究

摘要

Characteristic of the yearly runoff variation are analyzed by application of non-parameter inspection, R/S method and maximum entropy method in accordance with the monthly runoff data from the gauge station in Huangshui gulley, Xinjiang, in 1956 ~2013.The study demonstrates the yearly runoff in the Huangshui gulley abruptly varied in 1995 and reached the extremely outstanding level.This is in compliance with the calculation results by M-K method.The yearly runoff is verified in term of significance.The z value is positive, presenting that the runoff in past 60 a is in tendency of increment.The tendency rate is 15.7 million m3/a.The runoff Hurst indicator (H) is 0.6533, which predicates that the runoff still is in tendency of increment.The yearly runoff variation features 9 a as the main pe-riod, 29 a as the second main period.This study provides important reference to the reasonable development, utilization and the sustain-able development of the regional water resources .%根据新疆黄水沟水文站1956—2013年逐月径流资料，采用非参数检验、R／S法及最大熵谱法分析了年径流量变化特征。结果表明：黄水沟年径流量在1995年发生突变，并达到极显著水平，这与M－K法计算结果相一致；年尺度下的径流量通过了显著性检验，z值为正，表明近60 a来呈增长趋势，倾向率为0．0157亿m3／a；径流量Hurst指数H为0．6533，表明未来仍处于增加趋势；年径流量变化以9 a为第1主周期，29a 为第2主周期。研究结果为区域水资源的合理开发利用与可持续发展提供了重要参考。