红寺堡生态脆弱移民区水资源承载力分析

摘要

Taking the vulnerable ecological immigration area in Hongsipu as an example, an evaluation indicator system of water resources carrying capacity is constructed from the aspects of water resources system,economic system,social system and ecological system. A comprehensive evaluation and analysis were conducted on the water resources carrying capacity of the area in 2014 and the GDP of the area in 2020 was estimated by the method of non-linear regression and the popula-tion of the area was also estimated by the method of Markov mode. The results showed that the population and economic development are within the carrying capacity of the water resources in Hongsipu district in the present stage and the water resources are not in overloaded state. In 2020,the economic development will be within the carrying capacity of water re-sources,but the population will overload seriously,and the pressure of the water resources carrying capacity will gradually increase.%以红寺堡生态脆弱移民区为例，从社会系统、经济系统、生态系统和水资源系统构建水资源承载力评价指标体系，对该区2014年水资源承载力状况进行综合评价分析，并采用非线性回归法和马尔科夫预测模型分别对该区2020年GDP和人口进行估测。结果表明，现阶段红寺堡区经济、人口总体上可载，水资源未出现超载状态，而到2020年社会经济发展总体可载，但人口超载严重，水资源承载压力逐渐增大。