印尼镍原矿出口禁令的实施对我国的影响分析

摘要

The output and consumption of reifned nickel in China occupies the ifrst place in the world. However, the fact remains that China has inadequate raw ore reserves and output, more than 80%external dependencies for several years, and more than half of nickel concentrate from Indonesia. Therefore, Indonesian ban on nickel ore export has a great impact on China’s imports of nickel concentrate, import price, and industrial development. From the global distribution of nickel ore and trade patterns, the supply ability of nickel concentrate is growing, while the supply of refined nickel exceeds the demand. After 2015, new nickel ore production capacity will be gradually released. In order to respond to short-term supply shortages, this paper proposes that we should diversify the import channel and increase the technology and capital export to build stable supply channels of nickel resources.%中国精炼镍产量和消费量均居世界第一，但原矿储量产量不足，对外依存度持续多年超过80%，且一半多的镍精矿来源于印尼。印尼原矿出口禁令的实施对我国的镍精矿进口量及进口价格、产业发展等带来了较大的影响。从全球镍矿分布及贸易格局来看，镍精矿供给能力持续增强，精炼镍供大于求，新建镍矿石产能2015年后陆续释放。为应对短期的供给短缺，我国应该通过谋求进口渠道多元化，加大技术及资本的输出力度等举措来打造稳定镍资源供应渠道。