首页> 中文期刊> 《中国国土资源经济》 >PVAR模型下公益性地质调查投资溢出效应研究——基于我国30个省区面板数据的实证分析

PVAR模型下公益性地质调查投资溢出效应研究——基于我国30个省区面板数据的实证分析

         

摘要

PVAR model is set up based upon the panel data of 30 provinces between 2000 and 2011 in China; and the spatial spillover effects with regard to regional public-interest geological survey investment are veriifed through impulse response analysis and the variance decomposition. This study shows that there is a two-way interaction between geological survey investment and economic output and fixed-asset investment; and the spillover effect of geological survey investment on economic output has less positive impacts due to the deifciency of related participation variables and endogenous effect of economy; while there is signiifcant positive correlation between geological survey investment and ifxed-asset investment. Furthermore, there are asymmetric interactions between geological survey investment and economic output; in the next period, geological survey investment will show positive economic spillover effectsto economic output, but the positive impact of economic output on geological survey investment has instability which is effected by China' s economic system.%基于2000-2011年我国30个省区的面板数据建立PVAR模型,通过脉冲-响应分析、方差分解,验证了地区公益性地质调查投资存在空间上的溢出效应.研究表明:(1)地质调查投资与经济产出、固定资产投资之间存在双向互动关系.地质调查投资对经济产出的溢出效应受相关参与变量缺失及经济内生性影响,正向影响关系并不显著.而地质调查投资与固定资产投资间显著的正向关系.(2)地质调查投资与经济产出之间存在非对称的互动关系,未来期间地质调查投资对经济产出呈正向经济溢出效应.但经济产出对地质调查投资的正向冲击具有不稳定性,这种不稳定性主要受我国经济体制的影响.

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