基于集对分析的长吉图城市人口增长与空间扩张协调性研究

摘要

The research of system coordination in our country is mostly based on coordination degree and coordinated development degree, and can not describe the uncertainty of the system well. The set pair analysis is mainly used to deal with the problem of uncertainty, and can better solve this problem. Based on the set pair analysis, the population growth and spatial expansion system coordination of Changchun, Jiutai, Jilin, Jiaohe, Dunhua, Yanji, Longjing, Helong, Tumen and Hunchun are analyzed and evaluated. The results indicate that in 2012, except for Longjing and Heilong, other cities reached the basic state of coordination. However, some land use structures within the cities did not meet the needs of population agglomeration, and the coordination of all cities is very unstable. From 2006-2012 data, Changchun, Jilin, Yanji and Tumen are showing an upward trend of system coordination.%我国系统协调性研究多以协调度以及协调发展度构建模型，不能很好地描述系统间的不确定性。而集对分析主要用于处理问题的不确定性，能够较好解决这一问题。本文基于集对分析对位于长吉图区域的长春、九台、吉林、蛟河、敦化、延吉、龙井、和龙、图们以及珲春等10座城市的人口增长与空间扩张系统协调性进行了评价。结果显示：2012年除龙井与和龙以外，其他城市均已达到基本协调状态，但有些城市内部的土地利用结构也未能满足人口集聚所需，并且所有城市的协调性都十分不稳定。从2006-2012年数据来看，长春、吉林、延吉以及图们的系统协调性都呈现出上升趋势。