不确定概率下累计前景理论在质量和维护联合优化中的应用研究

摘要

针对设备不确定退化和质量波动展开联合优化研究,以最大收益作为优化目标.鉴于质量波动具有随机性,采用蒙特卡洛法模拟合格品概率,构造设备退化与不合格品概率间的关系,根据质量成本讨论维修决策的收益函数和损失函数,采用最大累计前景理论值作为维护时间阙值,讨论合格品概率、前景理论参考点和不合格品概率的惩罚值对决策方案的影响,并与期望效用理论做比较.实例研究表明:前景理论可以更好地界定维护时间阙值.%The joint optimization of equipment uncertainty degradation and quality fluctuation is studied.Since quality fluctuation is random,Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate qualified product probability first.Then,constructed equipment degradation and nonconforming rate of quality cost is discussed.According to the maintenance decision's gain and loss functions,the maxi-mum cumulative prospect theory value as the maintenance time threshold is adopted.At last,the probability and reference point, the penalty value which influence on decision making the scheme are discussed.To compare its effective,compared it with the ex-pected utility theory,the case study shows that the prospect theory can better define the maintenance time threshold.