反导预警体系作战风险分析及评估模型研究

摘要

反导预警作战具有残酷性、突发性、多变性等特点,决定了其作战过程的高风险性,对其进行风险分析和评估直接影响和决定体系作战运用成败.从影响体系作战的静态和动态两大方面对风险因素进行分析,并运用灰色系统理论对体系作战风险进行评估,最后结合实例对反导预警体系作战风险进行评估,验证了该方法的合理性和有效性.研究成果将为反导预警体系作战运用提供决策依据.%Antimissile early warning system is characterized as cruelty,sudden,variability,and so on.These features determine the high risk of operational process.The quality of risk analysis and risk assessment effects directly decide the success of operational application.Static and dynamic risk factors are analyzed,a risk assessment model based on grey system theory is built,and a live example is given to validate the rationality and feasibility.The research in this paper can provide a basis for decisionmaking in the risk management and control of operational application for antimissile early warning system.