信息冲突与不确定条件下的装备质量状态评估

摘要

Aiming at the conflict and uncertainty of the test data required in the quality assessment,and the incompleteness and inaccuracy of the condition assessment,an improved method of evidential reasoning (ER) is proposed.After the quality grading and test data pretreatment,the conflict between the information and the overall uncertainty are assigned to each level of probability to reduce conflict and overall uncertainty between the evidence assessed.The method is applied to the missile equipment quality condition assessment,and the results and algorithm comparison show that the improved evidence reasoning method can effectively reduce the conflict of evidence,and the overall uncertainty of condition assessment is greatly reduced.The principle of the method is simple,the theoretical basis is sufficient,and the program is convenient to be realized.%针对质量状态评估中所需测试信息的冲突性和不确定性,及其对装备质量状态评估准确性和完备性所造成的不良影响,提出一种基于改进证据推理(evidential reasoning,ER)方法的质量状态评估方法.在对质量状态进行等级划分和测试数据预处理之后,该方法通过将各测试参数之间的“冲突”和“不确定”按比例分配到各等级,使证据之间的冲突有效降低,评估的总体不确定性减少.将其应用到导弹装备的质量状态评估中,运算结果和方法对比表明改进后的方法能有效融合冲突信息、降低评估的不确定性,且方法原理简单,理论基础充分,方便程序实现.