1951要2011年辽宁省气候季节变化特征分析

摘要

In the context of global climate warming,according to the method of division four seasons,we analyzed the trend and mutation for four seasons start time and duration from 1951 to 2011 in Liaoning Province by using linear regression and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that in nearly 60 years,the start time of winter was later than before,but the start time of the other three seasons was earlier. Corresponding to above analysis,spring and summer were longer than before,especially summer,and winter was significantly shorter. Autumn did not change significantly. In addition to the duration of the autumn did not change significantly,the other seasons all showed mutation phenomenon.%在全球气候变暖的大背景下，按照气候季节划分四季的方法，利用线性回归分析法对1951-2011年辽宁省四季开始时间及持续期的变化特征进行趋势分析；采用Mann-Kendall法进行突变分析。结果表明：近60年来，辽宁省春、夏、秋季节开始期存在不同程度提前，而冬季明显推后。相应的春、夏季在增长，尤其是夏季，而冬季明显缩短，秋季的长短变化不是很明显。除秋季持续期变化较平缓外，其他季节均存在突变现象。