利用沈阳高分辨率WRF（weather research and forecasting model）模式输出资料，结合实况观测，检验模式2011-2014年温度和降水预报产品。结果表明：①浑南站定时温度预报准确率最高为76%，最低为52.8%。随着预报时效的增加，预报准确率呈下降趋势。区域自动站中辽宁大学预报准确率最高，奥体中心预报准确率最低。浑南站温度预报的平均绝对误差在1.5~2.5℃，随着预报时效的增加，平均绝对误差越大，平均绝对误差与准确率成反比。区域自动站中平均绝对误差与准确率不具有明显相关性。②浑南站较其他区域自动站的TS评分高，最大值为0.571。浑南站模式对各时刻晴雨预报的准确率相对较高。③浑南站订正后的≤2℃温度准确率平均增加了4.4%，≤1℃温度准确率平均增加了8%。区域自动站中除辽宁大学和奥体中心为负增幅，其他站均为正增幅。%Using the high resolution of WRF(weather research and forecasting model)model data and combining with the actual observation data,this paper tested temperature and precipitation forecast products from 2011 to 2014.The results indicated that①regular temperature prediction accuracy was 52.8%~76.0%in Hunnan Station.With the increasing of forecasting periods,forecast accuracy rate was on a downward trend. Regional automatic station forecast accurate rate was the highest in Liaoning University,that in Olympic Sports Center was the lowest.The temperature prediction of the mean absolute error from 1.5 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ in Hunnan Station.With the increasing of forecasting periods,mean absolute error was larger. The average absolute error was inversely correlated with the accuracy rate. Regional automatic station in the mean absolute error and the accuracy rate had no obvious correlation. ②TS score was higher in Hunnan Station automatic,the maximum value was 0.571.The weather forecasting accuracy rate of Hunnan Station mode in each time was relatively high.③After the correction,it was increased an average of 4.4% in less than or equal to 2 ℃temperature accuracy,less than or equal to 1 ℃ temperature accuracy rate increased by 8%.Regional automatic station in Liaoning University and Olympic Sports Center were negative,and others were positive.
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