Based on the projection pursuit auto-regression theory, an effect prediction model was established for shaft excavation by one blasting, taking nine factors including compressive stress, rock density, diameter and number of empty holes, diameter and number of loaded holes, the minimum busbar, linear charged density of the initial hole and unit explosive consumption as input factors, while cross section and depth of raising shaft as output factors. Based on data collected about engineering cases of shaft excavation by one blasting in mine, 20 groups of practical measurement in different mines were tested and verified. The result showed that the error between design and prediction is within 2% in terms of shaft size and within 8% in terms of shaft height, meeting the requirement for engineering practice. Then the effect of shaft excavation by one blasting in Xincheng Gold Mine of Shandong Gold Corporation was predicted with such established model based on rock parameters and blasting parameters of gold mine. Practice proves that such model, with a good prediction effect, can be of guidance in parameter design for shaft excavation by one blasting and will have a wide prospect of application.%基于投影寻踪自回归理论,建立了以岩石抗压强度、岩石容重、空孔直径、空孔个数、炮孔直径、炮孔个数、最小抵抗线、槽孔线装药密度和炸药单耗9个指标为输入因子,以成井断面和成井高度为输出因子的一次爆破成井效果预测模型.搜集矿山一次爆破成井工程实例,对其中20组不同矿山的实测样本进行了训练和检验.结果表明,一次爆破成井预测断面与设计断面误差在2％之内,一次爆破成井预测高度与实测高度误差在8％之内,均满足工程要求.根据所建模型,结合山东黄金集团新城金矿矿岩参数及爆破参数,对该矿一次爆破成井的效果进行了预测.实践证明,该方法预测性能好,对一次爆破成井参数设计具有良好的指导作用,是一种研究一次爆破成井的新方法,具有广阔的推广应用前景.
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