衢州市梅雨期暴雨预报概念模型的建立与检验

摘要

利用衢州市5个常规气象观测站及120个加密自动站资料、NCEP 1°×1°资料,对2013-2016年衢州市梅雨期暴雨天气过程进行分析,基于动力、水汽等条件建立梅雨期暴雨天气概念模型,并对概念模型进行检验.结果表明:衢州市梅雨期暴雨多发,区域暴雨多发于单阻型,各层影响系统活动范围相对集中,单、双阻型在局地暴雨中出现概率接近,系统活动范围区域分散;大气可降水量对暴雨预报有正贡献,上游江西中北部地区具有明显的高值中心;700 hPa上U分量更具主导地位,850 hPa华南地区V分量变化对暴雨预报有较好的参考性;区域暴雨与局地暴雨在垂直速度场上最强中心高度不同,区域暴雨期间垂直速度大值区层次更低.%Rainstorms during Meiyu period in Quzhou from 2013 to 2016 were analyzed by using conventional observation data, intensive observation data and NCEP reanalysis data.Rainstorm conceptual model was built based on the dynamic and moisture condition.Results showed that most of the regional torrential rains occurred under a single blocking condition.Weather systems were widely distributed when there was a local rainstorm.There was positive correlation between precipitable water and rainstorm.U component at 700 hPa level was dominant and the variation of V component at 850 hPa level in southern China can provide a good reference for rainstorm forecast.Regional torrential rain and local rainstorm had their own height of the strongest centers in the vertical velocity field, which could be lower in the region with high vertical speed during regional torrential rain periods.