基于卫星和雷达资料的对流云团识别跟踪

摘要

The identification and tracking of convective clouds and the 3-hours rainfall forecasting are discussed by using the multi-threshold,area overlapping,and statistical method,based on various weather data,including the data from FY meteorological satellite,weather radar and automatic meteorological stations.On the basis of this analysis,we established the operational software system of monitoring and forecasting convective clouds based on satellite data.In order to test the reliability of the software system,we choose 4 typical convective weather processes for trial operation.The results show that the software system can track the occurring and development of convective clouds accurately,and the precipitation regions of convective clouds were consistent with the ground precipitation observation.The forecasting index of maximum precipitation for convective clouds performed well with an accuracy of 61 ％,a vacancy rate of 33 ％,and a miss rate of 6％,which indicates that the findings can be used for monitoring and forecasting convective clouds in Fujian Province.%强对流天气是福建汛期最主要的气象灾害之一,利用我国自主研制的风云系列气象卫星资料,结合天气雷达和自动站雨量资料,采用多阈值法、面积重叠法、统计法对福建省对流云团的识别、跟踪、未来3h短时降水预报等方法进行研究,在此基础上建立福建省对流云团卫星遥感监测预报业务软件系统.根据2015年5-9月福建省4次典型对流天气过程的业务试运行,结果表明该业务软件系统能准确识别跟踪对流云团的发生发展,对流云团移动过程的降水落区与地面气象观测的实际降水分布一致,对流云团最大降水量的预报准确率为61％,空报率为33％,漏报率为6％.研究成果对对流云团的监测和预报有较好的指导作用.