转移概率预报方法及其应用

摘要

Using the method of conversion probability and the prediction principle of maximum probability,the conversion principle of random time sequence state of early frost date,latest frost date and monthly precipitation at Akesu city in Xinjang during 1954-1995 was analysed.Combining the initial distribution of every sequence state,the prediction model was given.The forecast for every factor in 1996-1999 shows that the method′s prediction effect and applying effect are better.%采用转移概率方法及最大概率预报原理,分析研究了新疆阿克苏市1954～1995年霜冻初、终日期及月降水量等随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列状态的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1996～1999年各项目进行预测.结果表明,该方法预报效果较好,适用性强,具有良好的应用前景.