条件价值评估法在公众气象效益评估中的应用研究

摘要

条件价值评价法（CVM）是目前生态（环境）经济学中最重要的和应用最为广泛的公共所有物价值的一种评估方法,对自然资源价值进行量化评估方面具有独特的优势,通过问卷调查反映环境影响下的价值问题,是一种理论化极强的评价方法。现将该方法应用到公共气象服务效益评估建模中,在考虑CVM不确定性因素的前提下,对公众气象服务效益进行评估,构建公众气象服务效益评估二分Logistic模型,并与传统的自愿付费法进行比较。采用全国抽样问卷调查数据量化结果比较表明,用二分Logistic模型对全国公众气象服务效益进行定量评估会更客观。%Contingent valuation method（CVM） is an important value assessment method that is widely used in ecological（environmental） economics;and it has unique advantages in the quantitative assessment of the value of natural resources.By questionnaire,the CVM reflects the value under the influence of environment, and it is a theory of strong evaluation.This method is used to analyze public weather service. Considering the uncertainty,the effectiveness assessment of public weather service is conducted by establishing dichotomy Logistic model（DLM）.Using national sample survey data,we compare it with the method of traditional willingness to pay.The DLM is more objective when using in a quantitative assessment of national public weather service.