中国钢铁与铁矿石资源需求预测

摘要

To predict demand for china iron and steel and iron ore resources is of great significance for industrial e-conomy,environment and trade. Demand for crude steel wag estimated according to the demand for construction,industrial areas and transportation industry. Output ratio of iron to steel and import interdependency for iron ore was analyzed. Demand for iron ore resources was measured. It can be concluded that total demand for steel will be over 800 million tons in 2013 and be close to 900 million tons in 2015 if ratio of steel exporting is 7% ; If output ratio of iron to steel can be maintained in 0. 95, it needs import 728 million tons iron ore in 2013 and over 800 million tons iron ore in 2015 when import interdependency is 58%. When import interdependency is 53% , it needs import 700 million tons iron ore in 2014 and about 740 million tons iron ore in 2015. Suggestions and measures about how to reduce output ratio of iron to steel and keep appropriate import interdependency were put forward.%预测中国钢铁需求和钢铁对铁矿石资源的需求,对于我国工业经济、环境和贸易的意义重大.根据建筑业、工业领域和交通运输业三方面的钢材需求,测算了粗钢的需求.通过对铁钢比、进口依存度的分析,测算同期铁矿石资源的需求量.得出:若钢材出口需求7％,2013年钢铁总需求超过8亿t,2015年接近9亿t；若铁钢比维持在0.95,当进口依存度为58％时,2013年,需进口铁矿石7.28亿t,2015年超过8亿t,当进口依存度降为53％时,2014年需进口铁矿石7亿t,2015年约需7.4亿t.提出了降低铁钢比和保持适宜进口依存度的相应建议和措施.