层次分析法在老龄机队风险评估中的应用

摘要

以某航空公司老龄机队为例，结合大量历史维修数据，根据老龄飞机的维修规律和结构特点，分别从环境、疲劳、意外和维护四个方面对可能出现的风险进行识别，建立老龄飞机风险评估指标体系，总结出15项风险因素评估指标，然后定义对应于不同风险评价等级下的隶属度概率函数，最后通过二级模糊综合评价完成老龄机队风险评估的计算。评估结果表明，通过模型计算得到的评价与该公司的机队实际情况基本一致，同时相比常用的专家打分法更加客观、直观，可以为老龄机队的管理工作提供参考。%This paper takes a aging aircraft fleet of a certain airline as an example to identify possible risks from four aspects and establishes the risk assessment index system based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP) .Firstly ,fifteen risk factors are summarized in this system .Then the evaluation model is established based on the fuzzy mathematical statistics theory ,which defines the membership probability function of each risk factor corresponding to different risk evaluation level .At last ,the secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied to complete the aging aircraft fleet risk evaluation .The case study shows that the model is more objective and intuitive than experts marking method ,which matching the actual circumstance well .This work may give some veference for the risk management of aging aircraft fleet .