气候因子对渤海冰情影响的统计分析

摘要

The impact of climatic factors ( Arctic Oscillation, Arctic Sea ice and Siberian High) on the Bohai Sea ice is studied by the correlation analysis and the partial correlation analysis. The result shows that the Siberian High is the most important and direct factor influencing the Bohai Sea ice. The correlation between the Bohai Sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation, the Arctic Sea ice is also significant. Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Sea ice can affect the intensity of Siberian High, which results in influencing the Bohai Sea ice. The regression equation is built between the Bohai Sea ice level and the Siberian High, West Pacific subtropical. The regression result shows the annual variability of the Bohai Sea ice better.%运用相关分析、偏相关分析等统计分析方法研究了北极涛动、北极海冰和西伯利亚高压等气候因子对渤海海冰年际变化的影响。统计表明西伯利亚高压是影响渤海海冰年际变化最重要的因子。秋季北极海冰密集度、冬季北极涛动与渤海冰情显著相关，它们可能通过影响西伯利亚高压的强度，从而影响渤海海冰的严重程度。利用回归分析得到渤海冰情等级与西伯利亚高压、西太平洋副高之间的统计关系，回归结果较好的反映了渤海冰情年际变化。