浙江省沿海县级风暴潮危险性区划研究

摘要

以浙江省沿海13个潮位站30 a(1985-2014年)共85次的台风风暴潮历史过程资料为基础,利用统计相关以及数值模拟对个别潮位站进行资料增补,确保资料丰富、全面.选用风暴增水和超警戒两个自然属性因子进行等级划分,考虑权重后计算得到浙江沿海县级风暴潮危险性指数.在此基础上,以20 a资料时长和危险性指数7为衡量标准,通过资料法及包含历史灾情在内的综合法对浙江沿海县级风暴潮危险性进行区划.研究结果表明:在33个浙江沿海县中18个可划为风暴潮灾害重点防御区,约占全部沿海县的54.5％,主要位于浙江的中南部和杭州湾北岸.上述沿海县在海洋灾害风险管理和涉海产业的利用规划中应重视风暴潮灾害影响并应加强风暴潮灾害风险评估工作.%Based on the total 85 storm surge historical data from 13 tide gauge stations during 30 years (1985-2014) along the coast of Zhejiang province,the statistical and the numerical simulation are used to supplement the data of the individual station for the abundance and comprehensiveness.The two natural factors,the storm surge and the exceeded water level,are selected to rank the storm surge at different level.The county-level of storm surge risk index are calculated by considering the different weight of factors.Under this basis,taking 20 year data length and risk index 7 as the standard of division,the county-level regionalization are conducted by the data-analyzing method and the comprehensive method which includes the analyzing the historical disaster.The results show that 18 coastal counties are regionalized into the storm surge key preventing regions,nearly account for 54.5％ of the total 33 coastal counties,which mainly located in the central and south coast of Zhejiang province and the north bank of Hangzhou Bay.The above coastal counties should pay attention to the impact of storm surge disasters in the management of marine disaster risk and the planning of marine industry,as well as the enhancement of the risk assessment of storm surge disaster.